On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 voting ends in Georgia for the runoff election for U.S. Senate between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker.

In-person voting on election day opened at 7 a.m. ET and closes at 7 p.m. ET. Early statewide voting began on November 28th.

Polls indicate Warnock holds a lead over Walker. The RealClearPolitics polling average indicates a 3.7% lead for Warnock. Polls can be incorrect however, and they tend to favor Democrats.

Is their any reason to indicate the results of the runoff may be different than the polling data in a manner that may swing the election for Walker?

Election Day Voting Favors Walker

If we look at the results of the November 8th, 2022 general election, we see that Warnock received 37,675 more votes than Walker. On election day however, Walker bested Warnock by 218,511 votes. This is because Warnock received a higher percentage of advance/absentee votes. There was much more time for these voters to vote for Warnock in the November 8th general election than there was in the December 6th, runoff. While these voters certainly may turnout again for Warnock, in general it seems logical to assume with a smaller timeframe a certain number of these voters will not participate in the runoff. Will it be enough of a difference to swing the election? That remains to be seen. Weather appears to be pleasant in Georgia for election day, which may help turnout and that favors Walker.

Libertarian Voting

Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver received 81,365 votes in the November 8th general election, more than twice the difference in votes between Warnock and Walker. Assuming many of these voters pick a side and vote for either Warnock or Walker in the runoff, their votes may impact the race somewhat. It should be recognized that ideologically Libertarians tend to lean closer to the Republican Party than the Democrat Party. Will enough Libertarians vote for Walker to swing the election in his direction? It may be argued these Libertarians would have been included in the runoff polling, which favors Warnock. The accuracy of such polling, especially regarding Libertarians, may be questionable however, as the methodology may discount Libertarian participation.

Race Remains Too Close to Call

Warnock retains the polling advantage as well as an advantage in favorable media coverage. The gap between their vote counts however remains small. Whatever the result of the runoff, it will be interesting to compare them to the general election results to see how important early voting/absentee voting is to overall turnout and party participation.